Good thinking Plough...I'd be happy for the man in the moon to buy AOG but at a fair price approximating NTA. Mulpha probably is the unwashed leper at the banquet!
I don't think Ryman are the answer...AOG obviously think they are good at this game as well...and the FY18 results show them to be so, judged on ROE (AOG 19% and RYM 21.58%)
I just cannot fathom why RYC are at the price they are - who in their right mind would pay an EV/EBIT of 19.3x versus AOG at 4.42x.
Initially I thought it might be that AOG aren't generating CASH and most of their profits are as a result of revaluing assets...but not so. I looked at both companies over the past four years comparing Net income with Cash from Operations and there wasn't much in it. Over the four years, RYC received 94.3% of their stated income as Cash Ops...AOG was 94.8%!
True, RYC is more consistent in generating cash whilst AOG are lumpy but that is more a result of them running down their property development investments.
Leaving aside AUD/NZD differences, RYC have been more proactive in investing for the future....but they plough back in profits (surplus to dividends paid) of $978m and then borrow...$782m in extra debt over the past 4 years. That's investments for the future of $1.76bn
AOG have ploughed back some $650m in profits surplus to dividends and used a combination of debt and share issues ($205m and $126m respectively.) Total $0.980bn
AOG's dividends as a % of 4 years on net income were 17.8% versus RYC of 24.3% - again not much difference.
Where there is a difference is in the Enterprise value - presently RYC have an EV of $7.76bn NZD versus AOG $1.83bn AUD. Roughly adjusting for exchange rates, is RYC really worth 3.90x AOG?
AOG Price at posting:
$2.00 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held