I think we have enough data to do a rough estimate of the current quarter. I think DSE will be cashflow positive but not significantly. I've tried to be conservative with these numbers and would like others thoughts.
I've based revenue for each month to trail on the previous month's quoted Paid Users as I think it would take at least a month for each new set of numbers to flow through.
I've also based the whole period on the $0.92 ARPU that has most recently been quoted. This is conservative as I believe the number would have been better at the start of the quarter.
I've used a gross margin of 78% as that is the most recent quoted for August. Again conservative as they have indicated they believe this will improve in September.
July: 400000PU x 0.92 x 0.78 = $287,000.
August: 600000PU x 0.92 x 0.78 = $430,000.
September: 750000PU x 0.92 x 0.78 = $538,000.
Gross profit for quarter = $1.255
Op Ex for quarter = $1.2m
It was approx $1.1m last quarter. I don't think it will be much more but hard to estimate. The largest cost increase would be hosting costs and they are already captured as COGS above the gross profit line.
Result = Positive by $55,000 for quarter.
I think things will possibly be better than this but remember there was also a $200k prepayment in last quarter's cashflow that will affect this quarter. Of course we may receive prepayments this quarter for next which will cancel that out.
If you took the month of September (the best/most recent set of numbers) in isolation then you are looking at this month being approx $130k to $140k positive or an annualised EBIT of approx $1.5m to $1.7m
