AVL 7.14% 1.3¢ australian vanadium limited

Ann: Gabanintha Presents Robust Base Case for PFS, page-36

  1. 6,289 Posts.
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    Key here:
    1. Base case scenario includes some credits but not a great deal by the looks of it - says somewhere base metals will account for about 2% of gross revenue over life. Significant positive uplift here alone IMO.
    2. Capex cost includes the gas pipeline so opex costs will also be dependent on getting cheap gas which is unlikely to be a problem IMO given events of late in the gas market as a result of WA Domestic Gas Reservation policy. The gas is required for the roasting process so need that investment. (For anyone who doesn't understand roasting, well it needs a hell of a lot of energy and that needs to come from somewhere and out there doubt you will be buying it of the grid, you need to generate it yourself IMO - Windumurra I think from recollection used gas).
    3. Pretty good IRR for the base case with uplift more likely than downside when further analysis is done.
    4. Vanadium recovery assumption a key and looks like their methods and additional time spent on the workings has had some benefits in terms of recovery of the vanadium in oxides but more work required there (refer my post of yesterday). (Refer Table 9 and check the assumptions). Given the recovery in the oxides is 40% to 45% in the concentrator by the looks of it and that is the first area where the revenue is generated this does impact the IRR in a way, so if this recovery rate can also be increased possible significant upside there IMO. The transitional and fresh ore has much higher recovery rates. Could have read it wrong though, so this is one area in the process flow sheet and future metalurgical testing and tweaking could improve IMO.
    5. Capex funding could also be funded in part by Offtake Agreements with equity capital injection - just have a look at how PLS did it as for example the Gangfeng Offtake arrangement came with equity as well. I guess before the DFS comes out we should also be seeing Offtake Agreements so that will give a guide here IMO on funding in future.
    6. Good to see they also had a $8 price scenario.
    7. Essentially a scoping study with the PFS and DFS to come or straight to DFS as have a base case.
    8. Finally this is a base case with quite conservative assumptions. Lets see how the DFS transfolds with the byproduct credits and recovery rates.
    9. What this does to the SP, who knows.

    Finally, I will have a few VBs and have a better read of this and see what else I can take from it. It is a very quick skim read and I must say the process flow sheets look quite comprehensive btw and detailed. So will put my thinking cap on on what else is in those process flow sheets not talked about to much in this Scoping Study.

    All IMO IMO IMO IMO
    Last edited by Scarpa: 26/09/18
 
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