Hi lostandfound,
Firstly bit of an epic....sorry.
Well this is what these forums are for, good constructive debate and offering personal thoughts and opinions.
The OP has an average of 66c with I suspect a smallish holding, for him to average down significantly , there is not a huge outlay required and it brings him closer to a realistic breakeven or even in the best case ,profit target..
My average here was 30 cents, 7 years ago it is now mid 1 cent...albeit I have become a top 10 shareholder and what I have done is most certainly not for the feint hearted. There is no professional investment outlet that would advise to do what I have done, I have just done it through extensive DD, belief in the company and new management coupled to an extensive industry background and network . I only hold Melbana on the ASX platform and I have made it a core part of my global investment plan.
I simply see no other ASX play with as much potential which has not been factored in and the reason it has not been factored in we have all discussed are due to many things.. poor management history, portfolio location, fear, low risk tolerance, not understanding ....
Remember this share hit 0.7 cents last year, it has already 3 bagged from those levels for those people who had the vision and risk tolerance to buy done there .
I agree the SP will spike heavily on a firm Cuban farm out announcement and it is of my opinion that if and when we do dual list we must be looking at a minimum of 3 pence....anything less I would not like. This equates to near 5 cents so we sure do have a heck of a lot of work to do...
Beehive will not take long for news to flow, it was not a huge area of 3D that was shot and there is absolutely no reason why Data interpretations should be drawn out here.. why would there, I am a firm believer of oil as this is my life and I firmly believe that next year will see serious spikes in the oil price due to the last 3 -4 years of capex stagnation in new exploration booked in ground oil reserves are the lowest globally for some 20 years and there must be a reaction to this as we are starting to see now, I do not see oil consumption significantly decling no matter how much the alternative clean energy card is played........ As such if the Beehive 3D is positive, which we all hope it is ( certainly our Management believe it will be) I see no reason to procrastinate on a drilling programme commitment by our partners , when it is clear rig rates, well tangibles and services will be increasing....
Beehive is in a relatively cheap and easy to access shallow water offshore area , there has been safe drilling all around it, so no issues with enviro Approvals..
It should really not be a long time between drinks ( as you put it) , however this is the oil industry and the main thing I see is many people who invest have little idea of how long things do take to put together. There are procedures and requirements and a lot of planning required. Some kit is long lead if not held inventory and there has not been a lot of kit being held on the shelf globsally over the last few years.. lead times for some OCTG and wellheads are really pushing out now, I see this as I am in the thick of this with bp whom I work for..
Sounds like to me you agree with the traders view of trading this and making money, some of them get it right I agree and they likely have made good money trading this recently, however what we are seeing is higher lows and higher highs ( albeit for 2 hours or so just now) but I am seeing a trend now and on the release of news as we move 2 massive areas of our undervalued portfolio closer to operations this will be come evident. So for those holders who bought in under 1 and mid 1 cents, they are already well on the well to making better gains than traders who sell on a 0.1 or 0.2 cent Profit. They will have to have done that 5 times in a row to now be on a better position than those holders who have the profit on paper and this is just the start ...
On an AIM listing( if we do this) this will spike and them It will settle. It will all depend on when we list and what news we list on and how close we are to actual operations..AIM has nothing with the quality play’s like Melbana in Cuba or Australia and I firmly believe there will be massive appetite for shares IF we market correctly and float there on really good news.
When you say, will it dilute our SP ? Well it wont dilute it from these levels as we need to be significantly higher than where we are now if we are going to dual list but yes we will issue more shares to satisfy the initial take up by brokers , institutional investors and market makers on AIM.
I like discussing with you, as I think you have a really sound business brain, however this sector is unique and what is even more unique and on our side as current investors and holders here , is the ASX Market and its brokers. have no belief we are going to do what we say we are going to do. Cuba has always been a bridge to far.
We are moving slowly but consistently and the Cuban puzzle is getting filled. The big centre missing piece of funding and Partnering is not far away hopefully .
I remember you and others saying, we won’t get the full drilling approvals or there is a risk we wouldnt, well we have the First one fully approved now ( Alemada) on a near 200 million barrel target at a very high chance of success and we are working now on the second one..( Zapato) and still the market does not really believe we will be drilling ...
It all boils down to one thing as investors of these oil and gas specs , if you have strong belief and have done your DD which puts you in a stable mental position to buy and accumulate shares cheaply before plans are finalised and the market takes notice , then do it , albeit with some risk.
If you don’t and want to wait until news is released, then do that but it will be at a higher price.
If we list on AIM, whatever dilution happens will be counter effected by a very large appetite to buy shares..
I see a massive flow of positive news in the remainder of this year..
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