FYs 19 and 20, page-10

QUOTE="Josh01, post: 35223851, member: 20558"]Firstly congratulations to all holders who have had a ride and a half over the last 5 years.  For some of us who were particularly fortunate to buy large numbers close to the bottom, it’s akin to watching a lotto draw over three years.  The scars are well and truly healed from trying to catch the NRW falling knife.  Averaging down holdings is never advised unless one has a firm belief in the company.  The reward is ours.  

Beginning of 2015 was when I was calling $2 when the share price was around .25c.  My theory is if you say something for long enough and tell enough people about it, it will eventually come true.  Yesterday for me it came true.  

Where to from here?  The friends and family that took my advice back in 2015/16 have been asking me the same question as we’ve been edging closer to $2.  “Do we sell now oh share guru?”  Far from being a guru I just recognised a golden opportunity of lightning striking the same place twice. My advice to them, “if your happy with $2 and you’ve got a better use for the cash, sell.  Otherwise,  there’s dividends and a potential 50% gain on the table over the next year.”

Plan the trade and trade the plan is something that comes to mind.  I think this has a little more to do with day trading than long term investing.  I’m not selling now like I did after the GFC at $2.  The institutions have just taken over the steering wheel of where the share price goes from here.  Watching them drive it from $2 after I sold, to $4.36 in a year was amazing.

Going out on a limb here and suggesting $3 within a year depending on macro economic factors, contract wins and an increased half year dividend. Maybe a 10% moving stop loss from here might be a sound strategy for anyone who is happy to take $2.

One of the mistakes that Jules may have learned from the mining boom is to increase cash position in good times for the inevitable bust or a FGE or RCR like event.  Basically never risk the life of the company again.  If that means a more prudent approach to dividends so be it.

Wow![/QUOTE]

Hi Josh ..
Some of the points you mentioned I hope might get further addressed as well
ie I hoped someone with more knoweledge than me might explain about how  institutional manipulation might steer things from our current position.

You wrote:
“The institutions have just taken over the steering wheel of where the share price goes from here. Watching them drive it from $2 after I sold, to $4.36 in a year was amazing. “

The curious truth is that we  have a current record order book of $2.2 billion yet are priced at less than half of that previous peak where the price ran from close of $2.58 on Jan 6, 2012 to close at $4.24 on April 20 and return to $2.96 by June 8.

The mining downturn had been signalled but NRW had a cash balance of $138M in its 2012 results and paid a full year dividend of 18c.
FY 2011 had been started with a record order book of $1billion and a share price of $2.73 https://hotcopper.com.au/documentdo...SEIhHWQo0Pk/wkVNPiGgta9tMc5+6odvLAYgzyeEjZA==

Anyway thoughts would be appreciated  especially as, ,overall, the XJO index has gone from 4,094.60 29 June 2012 to 6169.00 today and the sector is upwardly mobile .
Cheers