the options are a punters fantasy trade

No wonder people are fighting to get their hands on OIPO. Now I admit up front I've got a swag of these between 2 and 3c. (Not to mention the FPOs)
And no I'm not a spruiker because unlike the spruikers I examine the potential downside and not just the upside. Check it out.
OIPO last traded 2.5c. OK lets assume this months drilling comes to nought! Thats right - its a total dud , a duster. A great big (very deep) worthless hole in the ground.
Currently FPOs at 9c. Assume price drops to 4c.
OIPO drops 1c? 1.5c? At a cent you could buy a MILLION for 10 grand! Given the two and a half years expiry I'm sure they would be worth at least a cent.
Did I mention the next high impact well is to be drilled in early June? Who would sell at a cent with the next well being drilled just 6 weeks later?
I would suggest a very fair assumption is the maximum downside is around 1.5c.
Upside? Our conservative estimate (after taking into account the 1 for 1 OIPO) providing both targets are hit in full (40MBO and 155 BCF gas with a 30% recovery) is OIP is worth in excess of 50c. (Remember this is conservative!)
If OIP is over 50c then OIPO will be trading over 20c.
In sum, at 2.5c - downside 1.5c., upside 17.5c.
People talk all the time about risk and reward. If ever you wanted a high reward low risk punt then this has to be the one.
Nine times out of ten these high reward trades come with massive risk based on just one well - if its a duster you lose your shirt. This is different.