Pellet Price, page-660

Olly, great analysis. My current model has a NPAT of $171m for the full year. Been a bit conservative on tonnes shipped due to current issues with the weather. I have modeled tonnes for the year at 2,574k tonnes. Possibly a bit conservative.

Bit hard to model cash balance at year end due to unknown capex and pricing. Current modeling is about $300m in cash assuming capex in the 2nd half of $30m. PPE $15m, Mine properties and Dev $15m. This is just a guess. Div paid of $11.5m in September.

2nd half profit after tax currently modeled at $125m. This is the result of current pellet prices. I have assumed they will hold given what is happening in China and based on the companies previous statements about demand for pellets.

Based on 20% dividend of earnings I expect a 2 cents per share dividend in Feb 2019. 3 cents for the year. Dividend yield of about 13.5% net or gross dividend yield of 18.8% based on 22.5 cents share price.

Forecast earnings yield is over 66%, based on current share price and EPS of 15 cents. Hard to believe the current share price.

Looking fairly positive at this point.

DYOR