What am I missing (without hypothesising about future governments and taxes)?
AUD has depreciated by 8% since January. Tax of 8% added ~neutral change. Tax fixed for next 2 years then planned to be abolished. AUD forecast to drop~10% over next 2 years.
https://longforecast.com/australian-dollar-aud-to-usd-forecast-2017-2018-2019-2020-2021.
peso forecast to improve over next 2 years although I'm not convinced and the inflation/exchange rate relationship is too unstable for me to even contemplate:
https://tradingeconomics.com/argentina/currency/forecast
ORE has US$300m cash penned for Stage 2 expansion. Considering Peso denominated supply and construction costs for stage 2 and running costs for stage 1 operations I'd imagine at least $250m needs to change to Peso in the next 2 years. The management of this if done right and with a little bit of luck could easily offset the 8% tax.