No idea!! Depends on mining production, which depends on commodity prices and some sort of outlook that miners can be confident in. As a driller BLY is completely at the mercy of commodity production; mainly copper and gold.
It's a waste of time listening to forecasts and management commentary (except on the subject of mining exploration and rig utilization); they have little control over mining cycles. As someone once posted; only drilling can save BLY. Instead keep an eye on the copper price, gold price, mining exploration and mining sentiment. Tracking any contract wins by BLY is also ideal except they don't announce them unless they are big, like the one in Chile a while back.
BLY's problems are compounded by the fact they are so debt laden and therefore cannot undertake any expansionary or visionary measures like acquisitions to help alleviate their problems. Additionally they are under the thumb of creditors and have no bargaining power left and have to simply agree to aggressive terms.
There are some positives though;
- Commodity prices have stabilized or risen slightly the last two years. Mining sentiment has improved.
- BLY's research and development of drilling products means sales to many other drillers (i.e. their competition), increasing BLY's 'beta' in the event of a sustained mining upturn. This will be particularly advantageous because they have already reported good product sales in the current commodity environment.
- Funnily enough just today there is this announcement which sounds good for BLY (I don't have full access):
https://www.miningnews.net/events-c...copper-growth-to-lift-pressure-on-exploration
My BLY scenarios are:
1). Mining activity levels remain low and BLY goes under.
2) Mining activity increases, but not long enough for BLY to be transformed long term, so they appear to recover but just flounder for a year or two then go under.
3) Mining activity increases for a sustained period. BLY recovers fully meaning share consolidations, buybacks and much excitement. Not only that, they invest into their high potential research and development resources and release all sorts of advanced rigs and automated tooling, and completely dominate the drilling market.
If you bought BLY recently you only need a sniff of scenario 2. Long term holders need scenario 3 but should watch for a jump-ship opportunity during scenario 2.
It would be a shame for BLY to dissolve. It appears they have some ingenious robotic tooling and advanced drill rigs. Good management in a different life may have done way better...
. I believe it cannot and will not go under for the simple reason it WAS going under and "rescued" (vested interests) who will at the wiff of any opportunity take it private. (maybe already happening? conspiry theory again?)Nothing to loose by them and upside galore IMHO...I may miss out on any upside (not afraid of any downside except short term SP volatility (as I said above I wish I had the dough to top up at this prices)
