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Ann: Appendix 4E and Annual Financial Report, page-13

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  1. 705 Posts.
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    A very nice set of numbers.

    Top line growth of 14% has essentially been maintained for the last 3 years if you strip out the loss of the omni-bollard which affected last years numbers

    5 consecutive years of debt reduction from 5.6million to 1.4million in net debt currently

    gross margin down a touch at 34.1%

    Excellent signs of operating leverage:

    - salary costs down from 20% to 18.7 over last 2 years, similar reductions in motor vehicle/occupancy/ IT/ travel and other costs

    --> substantial improvement in the EBITDA margin to 7.1%

    finance costs dropping dramatically from 1.3% to 0.7% in this time as well

    This is operating leverage at play (and it is beautiful)- seen in the ROE increase from c1 to c9%


    If the same trends continue for 1 more financial year, assuming some degree of multiple expansion for execution and ongoing balance sheet deleveraging; ongoing scaling effect on the line items above and other expenses steady % of revenue, you are looking at EBITDA in the order of 1.9m, NPAT of approx 1.2m, ROE of 14% and multiple expansion EV/EBITDA to 9.5 a share price target in the order of 45c.


    It wouldn't surprise me if the numbers are even better though...


    Some calculations below...

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/1253/1253928-d37bec9ae3ccbed88f86288ef8ec35b7.jpg


    2016 2017 2018
    2016 2017 2018
    Rev 16.269 16.936 19.193 %growth 18.2% 4.1% 13.3%
    EBITDA 0.504 0.8 1.371 %growth -38.1% 58.7% 71.4%
    PBT -0.157 0.154 0.71 %growth 74.4% -198.1% 361.0%
    OCF 1.022 1.033 1.47 %growth 942.9% 1.1% 42.3%
    Debt -2.496 -1.992 -1.379 % revenue -16.8% -20.2% -30.8%
    COGS 10.219 11.493 12.896 % revenue 62.8% 67.9% 67.2%
    Change inventories -0.103 0.183 0.239 % revenue -0.6% 1.1% 1.2%
    GP 5.947 5.626 6.536 % revenue 36.6% 33.2% 34.1%
    other income 0.113 0.102 0.124 % revenue 0.7% 0.6% 0.6%
    Salary 3.23 3.277 3.591 % revenue 19.9% 19.3% 18.7%
    MV costs 0.144 0.134 0.129 % revenue 0.9% 0.8% 0.7%
    Occupancy 0.353 0.362 0.338 % revenue 2.2% 2.1% 1.8%
    IT costs 0.156 0.16 0.151 % revenue 1.0% 0.9% 0.8%
    Travel 0.308 0.183 0.173 % revenue 1.9% 1.1% 0.9%
    Other 1.366 0.813 0.907 % revenue 8.4% 4.8% 4.7%
    EBITDA 0.503 0.799 1.371 % revenue 3.1% 4.7% 7.1%
    D&A 0.451 0.459 0.515 % revenue 2.8% 2.7% 2.7%
    EBIT 0.052 0.34 0.856 % revenue 0.3% 2.0% 4.5%
    Finance costs 0.21 0.187 0.143 % revenue 1.3% 1.1% 0.7%
    PBT -0.158 0.153 0.713



    Tax 0.041 -0.035 -0.003



    NPAT -0.117 0.118 0.71






 
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