How about this, using EV/EBITDA of 7.5 to be reflective of where we are now
Column 1
Column 2
Column 3
Column 4
Column 5
Column 6
Column 7
Column 8
1
Multiple
2
Financial Year
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
3
Enterprise & Wholesale
15.00%
318.7
366.5
421.5
484.7
557.4
641.0
4
Commander
-11.00%
87.1
77.5
69.0
61.4
54.6
48.6
5
Consumer
-2.00%
84.4
82.7
81.1
79.4
77.8
76.3
6
New Zealand
8.00%
61.3
66.2
71.5
77.2
83.4
90.1
7
Group Services
0.00%
-186.4
-186.4
-186.4
-186.4
-186.4
-186.4
8
EBITDA
365.1
406.5
456.6
516.3
586.9
669.6
9
DEBT
1,001
1,160
1,160
1,160
1,160
1,160
10
DEBT/EBITDA
2.74
2.85
2.54
2.25
1.98
1.73
11
EV
7.5
2,738
3,049
3,425
3,873
4,402
5,022
12
Market Cap
1,737
1,889
2,265
2,713
3,242
3,862
13
SP
2.79
3.04
3.64
4.36
5.21
6.21
I have to use extremely gloomy assumptions to model a result that matches guidance of 360M EBITDA (+/-10), have to assume no organic growth from E&W which has never happened, and contradicts expectations of 15% compounding, just adding 15m for ASC, assume Commander goes backwards 20% which is more than this years 11%, no growth elsewhere. I think they must be lowballing it and will have to do earnings upgrade or miss growth targets.
