@ 29c the market is valuing the company at $40m= virtually at NTA- no value for the brands/ trade marks.
Looking back to 30 June 2016 when trading at 75c ($102m) & the retail sector was more optimistic than today- earnings were EBITDA $23.9m, NPAT $11.3m - Mr market valuation metrics of 4.25* EBITA and 9 times earnings.
Today the market cap of $40m -for 2017/18- Underlying EBITDA $13m - Underlying NPAT $3.6m approx , EPS 2.6c. Equates to 3 times EBITDA and 11 times earnings ( noting also at NTA backing).
Looking to 2018/19 - based on your numbers of EBITDA $16m - NPAT $6m - metrics at 29c = 2.5 times EBITDA and p/e 6.75 times.
Valuation at 4.25 times 18/19 EBITDA =$68m & 9 times earnings $54m = range 40c per share to 50c per share - Mid point 45c.
If Our major shareholder were to lodge a bid it may not be based on so generous multiples given the current retail environment but at the same time they would need to balance up the need to mop up remaining minority shareholders.
PGR Price at posting:
29.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
