Daily.
Positives.
The 12 month trend is still intact despite the recent profit taking / sell off.
Stoch 5 appears to be crossing the sig line.
The sp seems to be supported at the rising trend line ( The Lower Trigger line) and has made a slightly higher close than the prev low at 25.
The Histogram is rising (very slight increments)
Negatives.
The upper trigger line (the dashed down trending line) has continued to be resistance.
The sp is in a congestion area atm formed by the converging & conflicting trends.
Volume (on the last bar) was very low & did not generate enough momentum to force a break out of this area.
The stoch 5 is below the oversold line.
The stoch 14 trending down & looks about to cross below the oversold line.
The MACD is trending down
Weekly.
Positives.
Solid up trend continuing to make higher lows.
Very low vol last bar & closed at the top ML of the fork.
The Stoch 14 has flattened & is returning to its sig line & also appears to be holding on the 50 line.
Histogram still above zero.
Weekly support zone is 25 – 27 & rising. Resistance 30.
Negatives.
The sp retreated from the projected (rising) resistance line & closed below the down trending support one.
The stoch 5 looks likely to cross below the oversold line but has moved closer toward the sig line.
Resistance around 30
Monthly mid month.
Positives.
The chart shows a retracement to bring the sp back to a more realistic rise angle.
So far only about one quarter of the volume has been traded as the previous month during the re rating.
The MACD & Histogram are still rising.
Negatives.
The Stoch 5 & 14 have both crossed their sig lines & are trending down.
MACD appears to be flattening off & is very wide.
Outlook.
As the messy daily chart shows, GLN retraced to the 61% line (25) on 30/July.
Since then it has had one recovery rally taking it back to the 38% line.
At this time it is looking like a set up to retest the bottom of the trading range box down at 25 or lower.
That is a normal pattern & happens despite any positive fundamentals.
It may or may not retest that 25 level but if it does I would expect to see a bounce from the rising trend line area.
A close below the trigger line & the range box (25) would potentially result in the sp falling further with a downside target to the 18 – 20 area.
This target is reflected on all time frames.
There is no reason for the sp to go lower & given the fundamentals every reason for it to rally off the current low area & return to the 31 - 32 area.
I have actually started reading the threads here & a couple of company announcements & I can see nothing in the fundamentals that would indicate any reason for a major sell off.
In fact the future looks bright over the next few years if my limited understanding of the fundamentals is correct.
However I have not read anything that would indicate a pressing reason to enter at the current price given the negative aspects that are on the charts atm.
And therein may lay part of the reason behind this s/t down trend.
No catalyst to start the ball rolling.
So I am assuming that this pull back is nothing more than the normal process of profit and the re-accumulating at lower prices taking by the professionals and perhaps an attempt takeout out some of the lower stops along the way.
Overall the charts are looking good for the long term & should provide some great trading opportunities while accumulating for the longer term rewards.
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