Hi ConcernedCitizen, I'm pleased that at least one person on the GMC thread can look beyond the hype and spruiking. I first became aware of GMC when somebody many months ago did a cross promotion of GMC on the OMH thread. I've been an investor in manganese stocks for many years including ConsMin so I originally looked a GMC as a possible investment and that is why I was interested and did my research. It is not my intention to downramp but to put the facts on the table as believe many here don't have a clue.
Yes, I now note your second table. I was referring to the original table. Yes we now have a total costs using your table at US$1504.59.
However you have decreased the power cost and that is unwise in the extreme. If you don't think that PLN isn't losing money hand over fist then I suggest you google it yourself. The Indonesian Gov't is deliberately holding down power prices till the next election but will have to raise them after the election. There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that this will happen and you should as an investor prepare yourself for such eventualities. Even at US$0.09c/KWh the electricity cost will make GMC marginal at best. Remember US$.09/KWh made the Japanese smelters noncompetitive. Indian smelters at US$0.07/KWh are struggling against cheaper producers.
I do not believe what the poster said about an Investor Presentation saying a 4 to 5 year locked in guaranteed power contract. No presentation like this has been made to the ASX, plus it was before power agreements were signed so its hear say at best. I do not invest on hearsay its too easy to lose money on stocks when the information is from some anonymous persons post.
If you didn't discount the power on your table the margin is getting very slim.
Whether GMC produces LC FeMn or MC FeMn doesn't make a lot of difference. In fact LC FeMn is currently at a lower price than MCFeMn. The graph that is used in the Strachan Report shows that the long term LC FeMn price is lower than the MC FeMn price. What I find dishonest is that the latest Strachan report shows all the prices going up but doesn't show what has happened since Jan 2017, its 1 1/2 years since then. This is deliberate and false communication with investors. The Mn ore price went to US$8.00+ in Nov- December 2016 and pushed up the alloy prices, they have since come down. LC FeMn and MC FeMn are trading closer to US$1850/tonne currently.
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The price of LC FeMn and MC FeMn have only been above US$2000 for a short period from Nov 2016 to Jan/Feb 2017, prior to that it was last back in 2010 that the price was above $2000/tonne. Its the cheaper producers like Eramet that can keep pricing low due to their extremely cheap hydro power in Norway at US$0.03/KWh. They keep conpeditors out of the market and therefore cheap power producers have the market to themselves. A bit like BHP, RIO and Valewho make money on IO regardless of the price.
http://eramet.no/en/
http://www.eramet.com/sites/default/files/eramet_medium_low_carbon_ferromanganese_0.pdf
Nowhere in your table is shown the marketing commission of 5% for selling the FeMn which would equate to US$90 to $100/tonne. Its more than likely a commodity trader like OM Holdings will be doing the selling, especially when you consider they trade 2 million tonnes of ore and alloys annually for themselves and other parties annually.
I agree anybody who bought in at 1c or 1.1c are doing well, it also come back to how much you're prepared to risk. I hope that those that bought at 1.9c don't lose their money for you must remember that GMC now has a fully diluted MC of near $100 million and they only own 75% now.
