Ann: Investor Presentation - August 2018, page-14

Hi @flaming

Here was my analysis when gold had just bounced off 1240.
https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/gold.2750023/page-44201?post_id=34358058

I mentioned a fair bit of both positives and potential negatives.

There seemed to be a lot of positives going for it and most notably GDX @21. I’m a little disappointed that it broke. I can only imagine that there must have been a lot of stops everywhere and especially below 1200, 1180 for gold and GDX @21.

I also specifically mentioned a fair bit of negatives / warnings there to give my post balance, and unfortunately some of them came true, like –

1/ Risk till 1180
2/ Panic for gold bugs if USD @95 breaks and potential for USD to appreciate to around 97-98
3/ Could not figure out why commercials were not reducing their silver shorts (we know now)
4/ If wave 2 (Elliot wave) is still on, then there is some risk of further downward pressure on GDX at least till 21 IMO, if not lower.

These are some of the major risks to materialize. As I mentioned to you 1-2 months back, I’ve been playing goldies differently this time around with plenty of entries and exits into various gold stocks based on what I feel were support and resistance levels. I just bought NST again today having sold it shortly before this week’s gold takedown.

Also taking into account risks that I myself pointed out in July analysis, I have been patiently waiting for entries and not rushing all in. If goldies fall again next week, I’ll most probably again get into some of the others (was very tempted today too), but might once again sell off some to derisk myself as goldies go up.

Yes, it is not easy to hold onto goldies in this chaos but as you mentioned, this weakness has almost always been followed by a big rise.

Talking a bit more about above 4 risks

1/ 1180 has already come and we know that this is strong support in past. We’ve already gone below 1180; so of course we can head lower. But it is kind of hard to imagine gold being below 1180 for a whole year from now.

2/ My first thought is that at least for now, USD should top off at 98 at most. I specifically mentioned 97-98

4/ As I mentioned, if wave 2 is still on, then we would most likely have to go below 21 in GDX, which we have convincingly done. This leaves huge upside on top once wave 3 starts. As you mentioned this could very well be a flushing for wave 3 to start.

China trade war and Turkey issues were major factors of these past 2 weeks but these issues come and go.
I’ll try to update my gold analysis with latest figures this weekend or next if possible, after giving some further thought to gold, as above are just some initial thoughts. But we clearly know that it is impossible to say anything with certainty.
At first glance though, I do think commercial hedger position on several currencies and metals shows that anyone with a time frame of 1 year is likely to make a profit. Obviously very risky if anyone wants to make a quick buck in a day/week and has a very limited time frame.