FY18 result - North of 40 cents seems reasonable, page-10

"So based on your chart BOL has traded 30% of its time around 8x EBITDA or more....."

Yeah, when demand for cranes was:

1. absolutely booming in an unprecedented way, and
2. so dead that you couldn't give cranes away.

So which of those two scenarios are you invoking to back your 8x EBITDA multiple?

Presumably it isn't the latter, so it implies you are forecasting another boom?


"And you put all that effort into the chart too lol"

No effort at all; all the information already exists in my financial model for BOL. Just a matter of a few clicks of the mouse to get it into graphical form.


"Luckily 6x EBITDA provides more than enough upside from these levels......."

6x EBITDA would take the stock to 30c, which is closer to where I envisage fair value, and is some way off the "north of 40c" level you consider to be "reasonable".

And don't forget, the market has been badly brutalised and scarred by this stock; when it comes to valuing the business, I'm not sure the market will summarily ignore the company's chequered past.

Indeed, I think that the company's poor history is a large part of the reason why the stock is not trading at a higher multiple today, even after the recovery in earnings and the repair of the balance sheet.