next quarterly predictions, page-11

Between the June quarter update and the investor presentation, one of the gems is revealed with a bit of maths.
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20180709/pdf/43wd7g7y00qmgv.pdf
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20180612/pdf/43vq5vq4h72p16.pdf

We know from the update growth excluding DMC is 8.53/month or 25.59/quarter.

The investor presentation below references 450 Gwh in Q4 of FY 20-21 (June 30 2021) which is 12 quarters from the present (latest June update), in the latest June update we are 204.73Gwhs under billing.

Multiply the 25.59 by 12 quarters gives 307.08 growth over this period. So starting at 204.73 and adding the growth of 307.08 gives 511.81GWh at the point that LPE are predicting 450, so ~62 Gwh ahead of schedule, or ~2 quarters faster.

Although that is a nice result it has not factored in any DMC sales which are indicated in the presentation at 4 gwh/month or 12/quarter.
Back to the maths 25.59 + 4 = 29.59 x 12 = 355.08
So now at the time LPE are predicting 450 it will be 559.81 (355.08 + 204.73)
Now overshooting the target by around 110 Gwh, putting that in $ terms 110 x 220,000 is 24.2 million revenue gain above target.

It then comes down to the confidence you have in growth rates, imo exceeding 8.53/month is a given, reaching 12.53/month is a stretch but not unreasonable. Either way its a choice between good and excellent.
Perhaps that is the reason the accumulator BOT has been switched on today.




It appears the announcement of a funding solution below is the only impediment to exceeding the target SOONER THAN EXPECTED