Also ran some numbers based on the quarterly production and quarterly financial report...
Total Revenue = $11,445M AUD
Receivables at end of July = $4.7M AUD (29% of coal sold, no payment yet)
Total Product Sold = 55kT Coking + 11kT Thermal
Thermal Price Sold = $90 USD/t or ~$120 AUD/t (sold to Glencore as per report), we can calculate the coking price received from other information...
Coking Price Sold = $11,445,000 - (11,000 * 120) + / (55,000 * 0.71) = $259 AUD/t = ~$191USD/t (about right for coking coal)
Lets now assume a 17% / 83% split thermal sales to coking sales.... And as above will use your 17kt/wk product (1mtpa) - noting only produced 5.5kT/wk in june quarter... This will equate to quarter production and revenue of;
Coking: 169.3kT * $259 AUD/t = $43.85M AUD revenue
Thermal: 34.7kT * $120 AUD/t = $4.16M AUD revenue
Total Revenue = $48.01M AUD quarterly revenue
IF they hit the 1Mtpa rate, rather lets assume 80% of this rate, or 13.6kT/wk --- or 177kt for the quarter (100kT produced in june quarter - so again about right)
Total Revenue = $38.4M AUD
From the 5B outflows for the next quarter are estimated to be $40.1M, comprising mostly production costs of $29.6M... So unless I am missing something, at present B2Y are going to be borderline break even on a cash flow perspective next quarter - and hence the SP pressure in the short term.
In the longer term, at a sustainable 2.2Mt annualised rate, IF acheived, they will be profitable with next to no debt and in a strong position in the current market.
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