Could not agree more. There should be no increases to staff besides small CPI increases unless AEF were to move into new business lines. The current staff levels should be leveraged to gain higher FuM.
Unfortunately I'm not seeing significant indicators that point to a better year to come. Flows are not growing as strongly as in previous years and there doesn't seem to be any new ideas coming through.
Maybe I can be devils advocate and comment on each of your points:
1. No mention of fee reductions. My view is that the hiatus on fee reductions is only for a short period until the Royal Commission, Federal Budget changes and the Productivity Commission outcomes are finalised. My expectation is that once these reviews are finalised there will be increased pressure on fees.
2. Inflows stabilised around $400M a year, which adds about $5.2M to revenue. Inflows have stabilised which in my view is a significant concern. They should be looking at new areas of growth to boost this. The flows are received over the whole year so the additional revenue would be half of what you've calculated. 3. Staff recruitment. Fair enough but I'd be more cautious and expect more like a 7-10% change in expenses. 4. The All Ords. Again you need to look at the growth across the year so the potential uplift would only be $1.6m 5. Institution inflows. Agree they shouldn't be expected however with given the strong performance, the increased interest in ethical investment, the strong brand name, the 25yr track record, etc there is no reason why AEF shouldn't be getting more institution flows (with no increase in costs).
They also need to address the liquidity so that every trade doesn't affect the price. So a stock split or get some of the large holders to move on. Price moves on 2 and 3 shares is a nightmare.
AEF Price at posting:
$155.00 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)
