Long time holder, not often poster: https://ittechherald.com/2018/07/03...ch-19700-million-us-at-a-growth-of-69-9-cagr/
Considering no one has been able to deliver speed, retention, no need for error correction, yield, endurance, size, reduced power consumption and ability to scale down without a filament, all in one package, it's foreseeable that someone will pay $3+ per share, especially in the case of a bidding war, and this is likely to happen due to the patent profile developed by the company.
I think it's a case of uninformed keeping a lid on the price, also the product if as described appears too good to be true and sometimes healthy scepticism becomes cynicism. This will change with the investment bank roadshow.
Also, considering AKP has at one stage been valued at north of $1bn, I have no problem valuing 4DS at $3bn plus. We can survive without nano sound chips, but 4DS solves problems 100X larger in magnitude, memory going senile, power consumption reduced 100x, speed and endurance to automate public infrastructure networks and iot devices in the cloud...
$3bn is less than one years profits from the anticipated market in 2025 (see link above), and, as I have said all along, I am glad we have Jim to negotiate.
Also, investment banks will want at least a 20-30X return on investment, so it bodes well for early holders.
In my opinion, JD and DM tried to drum up interest in Aus on the recent roadshow, and it didn't work too well. This time, they will approach US professionals who have seen the multiples paid by the big players for new technology.
I expect new shares will be issued at a premium to the current SP, to wake up the market to reality, and then the company will be sold at multiples of the Sept issue.
The remaining risks are:
1) JD, DM, GA are untruthful, which is unlikely- Verified by imec an HGST
2) There is a problem with the final chip, and they have to fabricate it again. (This may happen, but they must be confident to release Sept completion date and organise a investment roadshow, they would lose face to say " we have a few issues with the chip to iron out", more likely the chip is done now and being tested at IMEc for the next two months so that the IB presentation metrics can be prepared)
Really the opportunity here is that instos don't hunt for elephants, and mum and dad investors are happy with a 20% pa return. When faced with the prospect of a 20+ bagger, the natural reaction is its BS. What this doesn't account for are the 10 odd years of effort and equity spent to get this far. A twenty bagger over 10 years which was a long shot to begin with, much like a hole in one. Still unlikely, but not impossible.
Good luck to all.
4DS Price at posting:
7.1¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
