Mark Samter, the top-rated former analyst at Credit Suisse who has now joined new independent house MST Marquee, said industrial buyers would be "extremely naive" not to support the LNG import terminals being proposed in the south-east to boost local supplies.
He said that the bid to prevent local gas prices moving to international levels was already lost when the Queensland LNG export terminals were sanctioned, and that now, importing LNG into the southern states is the only way to avoid a much worse fate.
"A lot of people still want to make the debate about price, but the battle on price was lost in 2009 when these projects were sanctioned; It was set in stone then that the market was going to be undersupplied," Mr Samter said.
"The liquidity issue is going to cause a far, far bigger headache than the price issue in reality. The price issue is real whatever happens." Four LNG import terminals are being proposed along the south-eastern coast, drawing criticism about the absurdity of importing gas at the same time as the country is becoming one of the world's biggest exporters.
A report from the Australian Energy Market Operator last month pointed to an easing in the east coast gas crisis thanks to a surprise jump in the estimate of gas to be produced over the next several years from the southern states, leading some to argue imports aren't needed.
But Mr Samter cast doubt on the AEMO outlook and said commercial gas buyers would be well advised to back the import projects, despite prices being quoted of about $10 a gigajoule, more than double historical rates.
"Industrial buyers would be extremely naive not to support them," he said, adding prices are only likely to go higher as Asian LNG markets tighten."
