the cheapest of them all, page-2

Berocca - by almost any valuation they are cheap. I think it is clear to serious oil company investors that they will rebound, but many will wait to see how low they go before getting back in. I remember Oil Search being in a very similar situation way back when oil prices were a fair bit lower. They were just unloved, and the price dropped to silly levels. As is common in this situation, plenty jump in and tell you there's this and that wrong with the company just because it falls and they just react because it falls. However, fundamentals rule in the end, and when very undervalued companies turn, they do so very quickly.

The main difference is Arc could get taken out before a proper chance to recover. With OSH, that risk was limited due to PNG govt shareholdings.

However, Arc is exposed to a number of wells in the Canning that will cause a very serious shift in the success case, and while I would love to see Stokes Bay come in or the current Yulleroo well, I think the current best bets for a kick are wells where we have results already, and that is Dunsborough and Valhalla. I think the good results from Valhalla have been missed by many, even if they remain untested. However, logs indicated moveable hydrocarbons- and Arc don't normally beef up their logs.

But how low first? Who knows in this market is my only comment, but I doubt it will go much lower when oil is $100.