Valuing Legend is not as simple as adding two plus two and coming up with four.
It is more complicated than that. Here my view on what is happening and then a stab at how I think value works and a little bit of looking at the tea leaves.
Right now Legend has 2Bln shares and a market cap of $100M, plenty of cash, about 2900 square kilometres of land on the Fraser Range, Creasy Group as a significant shareholder, stable board and management, and money owed and coming in from the Indians.
The shares have increased in the last year from under 1c to 5 cents. In that time the Nickel price has increased significantly as has cobalt.
We know that Legend is hunting for another Nova and the drilling results from Area D really kicked the share price up starting in late November 2017.
The fundamental reason for the surge in the price is the drilling results at Area D. these are shallow Aircore holes used to test as cheaply as possible for nickel/copper/cobalt mineralisation in the rocks near the surface ( down as far as the rig can go circa 120 metres). Many of these holes have found really impressive grades on mineralisation. Importantly these aircore holes aren’t used to find orebodies, they are used as a type of vectoring tool to work out where the likelihood of an orebody might be . The discovered orebodies ( Nova and Sputnik?) are underneath the cover sands and clays and the geos want good mineralisations near the surface to help guide the next step in exploration.
Given these results to date Area D is looking very promising. Next step is the Electromagnetic loops on the group (and maybe some downhole) to look for conductors underneath. The idea is that the aircore drilling mineralisation shows an area where the hard rock source may well come from. The Ground EM is a technique to sort of X Ray the ground and get a picture of what is underneath. The ground EM identifies conductors.
The conductors are the things which can be orebodies (or not).
Fkn amazing technology really.
Back to values, . Area D drilling has added $80M to legends share price (from 1 cent to 5 cents).
Recently Independence ( Mcap $megabillions and owner of Nova-) bought 70% of 1100 km2 from Creasy Group for $21M, right in the Fraser Range near Nova. That equals $19k per km2. On a like for like basis considering Leg has 2800 km2, then this puts just the land at Fraser Range held by Legend at $53M. The ground that Independence Group bought must be the land that Creasy Group doesn’t want ie the fish that John West rejects scenario. My thinking is that Legend’s ground is far more valuable than the price paid for by Independence for Creasy’s rejects.
How much?
It is whatever the market cap of Legend is plus at least $53M.
That’s the two plus two equals four bit. But here is where it gets more complicated.
If it is true ( as some posters here have said and I have no idea) that Zero Nominees is the vehicle that Independence via Euroz has used to get a stake in Legend, then change that $53M to $150M.
Either way I don't really mind. Legend will either make a nickel/cobalt/copper/x discovery or be taken out by someone bigger. Independence would sure look as dumb as dogs^&* if another mining major scooped up a slab of Legend. Thing is, all majors are looking for new Nickel/Cobalt exposures.
I am a holder and think this investment will be a multi bagger from here.
cheers
omg
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Last
1.1¢ |
Change
0.000(0.00%) |
Mkt cap ! $40.73M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
0.0¢ | 0.0¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | 0 |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
9 | 2346320 | 1.1¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
1.3¢ | 1701217 | 6 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
2 | 161998 | 0.032 |
3 | 551666 | 0.030 |
6 | 1043613 | 0.029 |
1 | 1000000 | 0.028 |
1 | 74074 | 0.027 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.033 | 19052 | 1 |
0.034 | 551191 | 3 |
0.035 | 591695 | 4 |
0.036 | 120000 | 1 |
0.037 | 100000 | 1 |
Last trade - 16.00pm 15/11/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
LEG (ASX) Chart |