EGP Fund research on LPE

Check out page 5
https://egpcapital.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/PerformanceLetterFY2018_Final.pdf

One stock inside the top 10 holdings with ‘multi-bagger’ potential in our estimation is Locality Planning Energy (LPE.ASX – 3.7% of the portfolio). We have discussed LPE before on the blog. They are executing well ahead of their forecast to deliver a 450GwH of annualised billing, which now appears likely to happen in FY2021. There is enormous operating leverage in the model and revenues are currently growing over 3x the speed of operating costs. The table below shows the forecast performance for the business in the most recent investor presentation: LPE currently has a market capitalisation of less than $43m. If they even come close to generating $8.2m of NPAT in FY2021 (only 3 years away), I find it hard to imagine this business doesn’t have a valuation at least triple the current market capitalisation with a long runway for further growth into the future. The very long-term contracts (currently averaging over 7 years) their customers have will ensure incredible ‘stickiness’ in their revenue base. In our estimation, the reason the market is ascribing such a low valuation is scepticism they will have the balance sheet required to execute this massive growth ambition. They recently announced a facility that allows them to finance the plant installations required adding new strata blocks, but there is still a cash flow tightrope due to their need to fund working capital (which the current facility does not allow). We expect that if they can secure a simple overdraft or line-of-credit for $5-10m to ensure their pathway for growth is funded without the need for further equity that the share price will rapidly reflect something closer to our view of the fair value of the business