Q1 FCF was $246m with realised poo of $71.6, which had premium of $5 to the average Brent price in the quarter. The average price of Brent in Q2 is approximately $76. Assuming O premium, we should have an extra FCF of $25m just for the rise in poo
The PNG LNG stopped in Feb and started at the end of April, should contribute a bit more FCF;
Production should increase a bit too.
FX helps the earnings too.
Sum up, my guestimate FCF for H1 is US$520m, or A$690m at fx 0.75. Again IT IS for HALF A YEAR.
A 20% payout ratio should give a H1 dividend about 7 cents.
Note that the SP is determined mainly by EPS. With above earnings estimate, STO's full yeay EPS would be A$0.7 and the SP should be in the range from $8 to $10.
Ann: Santos announces sustainable dividend policy, page-21
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