Bothersome thoughts on nti, page-36

It's meaningless to speculate on the price action when volumes are so low. Look at the buy/sell stack. A total of only 243,115 shares on the buy side. You could wipe the whole lot if you were prepared to accept an average price of 8.5c per share, and drive the share price down to 1c.

It's problematic for me. My average buy price is 22c. I'm looking at rebalancing my portfolio and trying to decide whether to average down on Neurotech or just let it sit and do what it will do, when eventually it gets around to doing anything.

The results when they are published will sit somewhere on a 3x2 grid:

	Column 1	Column 2	Column 3	Column 4
0		Clearly effective	Marginal	Clearly ineffective
1	Conclusive result	Skyrocket prices	5 cents	Below 1 cent
2	Inconclusive result	Same as now, gradual drift down	Same as now, gradual drift down	5 cents

Conclusive or inconclusive will be determined by how well the trial was designed and executed.
Effective to ineffective will be determined by how good our product is.

As you can see, only one of these possible boxes is good. Without any other evidence I'd be sitting on my holding as it is with no chance of averaging down.

Except that the preliminary results delivered last year imply that there's a very good chance of hitting that left column. If that's the case, the decision to double down or stand depends mainly on which row we get, which in turn depends on how well the Carrick Institute did their work.

I haven't made up my mind yet. Torn!