target price > $5.10 - $5.75, page-44

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Christos12

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29/05/18

12:31

Post #: 33351617
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Originally posted by Hahndoe ↑

I agree lickspitle and willbio

The share price fall from $15 to $2.60 reflects the news around the Glaucus issue. That news is now old and wont effect the share price going forward. That doesn't mean the share price wont fall further and if it does its more likely due to emotions/panic/fear/bots etc.

It will require 'new' information' for the share price to take another major hit . If that 'new' information is about the revaluation then it may or may not move the stock lower. It would depend on the size of the revaluation, is it the last revaluation etc. To make the share price drop another 83% would require some very big news (which could happen), e.g. loss of all their contracts, meteor striking the earth...

On the other side of the coin:
The next announcement could also be positive. As HelloU states in his post, the 2018 guidance was $34m and now the NPAT has taken a $7m hit. If I take the data from the first table i found in the 2017 annual report (i'm being lazy), the NPAT for 2017 was $25.5m (consol $20.6m) and they paid a 23c dividend. I assume HelloU is therefore saying the company is a dead duck because the 2018 NPAT is going to be $27m instead of $34m (again I'm being lazy and not checking the data properly). Well that seems better than 2017 and they again paid a 23c dividend last year.

23c dividend at a share price of $2.60 is quite nice, it's certainly not bad (at least to my investing strategy)

So that leaves two options

1. Negative news - another revaluation that is minor up to something catastrophic
2. Positive news - a nice dividend, a minor revaluation and the issue is now sorted, some new ventures etc.

Is the sky falling or not?

You never really know but don't listen to people, the media, or trade with emotion. Look at the facts that are available and make the best decision you can from that

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Why are people viewing the past share price as relevant to the fortunes of this stock? That is a sunk cost fallacy. It is completely irrelevant.
You are referring to last years dividend. What relevance has that got to the future performance of the share? They will not be paying a 23c dividend in the immediate future.
I would imagine Glaucus have either already closed their shorts or have re-evaluated the company as far less valuable and waiting for another drop with the next reports, or both.
This company is a disaster waiting to happen. All the positive views are based on fallacy and fantasy.

BLA Price at posting: $2.64 Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held
6 Upvote

3 Great analysis

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target price > $5.10 - $5.75, page-44

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