Back Of Envelope Valuation

Netraam "At 10x earnings and 1.7 b turn over at 10 % profitmargin it would be around the 100c.
There could be much more profit margin as they will do the processing "inhouse"

I concur with your valuation Netraam, even though the numbers are so wildly affected by the assumptions used. Whilst the assumptions I have used are very conservative (2 billion shares fully diluted which allows for a further 109 odd million that aren't called for at all, and assuming a marginal profit /Kg of A$3.50, an exchange rate of US$0.75) I see the share price at:
(P/E 8) $0.69
(P/E 10) $0.86
(P/E 13.5 - Tassal) $1.16

On those assumptions I estimate the breakeven marginal profit revenue to be A$1.87/Kg.

I believe that this marginal profit of A$3.50/Kg is probably a significant under-estimate to what can be achieved. Clearly the current operations, which certainly have nothing like the economies of scale of PSD have contributed tens of millions to current PSD development costs, and thus suggest that maybe something north of A$5.00/Kg is definitely achievable, and this would result in a considerably higher share price - from $1.32 - $2.22 on the range of P/Es above.

I take a considerable amount of comfort from Nissui's involvement - I understand that the Japanese took a number of months to complete due diligence, that included intensive legal, accounting and operations reviews of current operations, plus the feasibility work for PSD. In addition Nissui clearly will considerably add to marketing initiatives, particularly in Japan - and I know from first hand experience that the premium end of black tiger prawn pricing in Japan is considerably beyond what SFG can achieve in Australia.

Also I understand that the feed is planned to come from Australian sources, and whilst Novaq has been a discussion point for a few years now RIC has sought to get a premium price from its use and whilst it can be an adjunct to the feed preparation SFG has demonstrated with its careful development of the existing operations based on in-house prawn growth and research via James Cook etc that it can successfully breed a healthy higher quality prawn without Novaq feed.

Lastly note that in the 2017 AGM presentation revenue was estimated at US$2.30 billion, considerably higher than that mentioned by others in HC posts. And if you work back from that number it should be US$15.33/Kg. Thus I suggest that we might get even more pleasant surprises with production in future years.

Whilst we still await final project development financing arrangements I believe that Nissui's involvement makes the project more credible and the financing more likely. Thus the share price should gradually build towards the $1.00 in the next year or so, but firstly will move closer towards $0.30 - $0.50 in coming months once finance details are announced (if they are of course!).

And lastly, in answer to AngryPrawns view of the options price, SFGO, I certainly don't agree whatsoever with a suggestion that the options are not as good an investment as the shares (but maybe he was trying it on for other reason!). The options have just over 3 years to run from now, and the exercise price is $0.10, thus at a share price of $0.20 the options start becoming excellent value - and with the extremely high beta value for the shares in recent times (ie volatility index) a Black Scholes valuation of the options would have the time value premium to be substantial.