I gave up trying to value AQG stokdog. It’s a complicated company because it has a lot of moving parts - oxide operation, sulphide development, exploration oxides, tax benefits, Gediktepe, Turkish country risk (or perception of).
Typically I try to value the local large producers using cashflow multiple. A lot easier to compare them than Alacer.
The major thing that it is under appreciated in the share price is the reserves. Very few of the big Australian producers have reserves anything like Alacer.
Funnily enough I think because Alacer is difficult to understand it gets forgotten by gold investors. That also represents a good opportunity for those who are more patient.
Gold investors are a simple bunch though, and ultimately if the cash starts pouring in then the share price will run. $3.50 at least I think is fair value based on the broker reports and my general gut feel. I won’t be selling any before $3.00 (and even then it would be just to protect some profits as I’m pretty overexposed in my super portfolio).
AQG Price at posting:
$2.52 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
