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clock Created with Sketch. 22/05/18
22:13
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Originally posted by BSMeter
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Dan, Thanks for the clarification, just unfortunate. I dont think the refinance is a movement of deckchairs, I think it is necessary for their survival. I think the reasonable steady state pricing for oil is circa 50 and if they dont refinance they are toast medium term forget about long term. However, that being said, I do not think the savings will be as substantial as you estimate, I would put it in the 10 mill per year range. I cant see them getting debt for much more than 4 to max 5 years on the majority of their assets as the longevity of the assets remains to be proven. It will be very interesting what the Aneth production rates on existing wells are and what is really coming out of Grieve, the next 2 quarters. I also do not see them getting below 7% on any of the debt because of the underlying volatility in the value of the assets due to the heavy concentration on oil and the long or short term nature of EOR on existing reserves. So they have to find cost effective production increases on existing holdings, the refinance savings and some opex cost savings going forward to support any meaningful increase in share price. And if they dont make out reasonably well outside of the hedges with the current market prices, well Betty bar the door.
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Major shareholders would not be increasing their holdings and risking more of their money if they didn't believe or know that everything was going according to plan IMO.
