What has Santos' board been doing for the past eight weeks?
Harbour Energy has bent over backwards in its pursuit of the $13 billion oil and gas company, stumping up six bids in eight months and still doesn't know where it stands.
Street Talk understands Harbour Energy thought it had a deal on Friday, when the two sides agreed what the all-important scheme implementation deed would look like. The missing piece was price.
It moved to address that with a $US5.19 a share bid on Saturday, which was a 4 per cent improvement on its post due diligence offer.
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It got the feeling it needed a bit more, so lobbed another offer at $US5.23 in time for the working week to begin - and said it could go a little higher if Santos agreed to hedge more of its production.
There were no surprises in any of this for Santos. It was bidder and target and their litany of advisers in talks all weekend, and there was plenty of focus on hedging and other matters.
And still Santos couldn't give it an answer, instead taking the offer to market and following it up with investor calls.
The circus, as one onlooker described it, has been going on for eight weeks.
[To be fair, hedging does ask Santos to assume some of the deal risk, but that "some of" is nothing compared to the $17.9 billion Harbour Energy and partners have on the line. And it wouldn't have come as a surprise.]
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You have to wonder why Santos' board is not in a position to put a firm and united value on the company and either accept or reject the offer. Sure, oil prices and forecasts move daily, but this is a board charged with considering the long-term interests of shareholders.
Harbour Energy, understandably, is sick of bidding against itself. It
declared its revised proposal "best and final", which means there will be no more bumps. One of the most patient bidders we have seen in recent times is clearly running out of patience.
The good news is that the end is in sight. Santos seems to have got the message, and shareholders have been told to expect a decision in the very near term.
Should Santos accept - and given its biggest shareholders are on board with Harbour Energy and the talks have gone this far you think it would be inclined to - it will then be over to the Foreign Investment Review Board.
Harbour and its co-investors have spent plenty of time with FIRB already, although it would likely be awaiting Santos board's green light before formalising its request.
So............how long to wait for an answer?
(20min delay)
