I agree with you that there was too much assumption in the analysis.
There are so many moving parts that can affect the calculations. After such a major acquisition, how can we be certain about the financials for FY2019, let alone FY2021?
Assumptions + spreadsheet can be a very dangerous tool. It can be used to produce whatever result we want to get.
For me, I will gladly admit that I have no idea about how Reece's financials will be like going forward. And therefore I don't even try to forecast the financials.
I'm fully aware that this acquisition can blow up in their face in a few years time. But, it can also work out and be the platform for growth for the next few decades.
The only question that we need to ask ourselves is "Do we believe in the Wilsons or not?"
My answer is "I do, for now"
As for the entitlement rights, considering that it's way in the money, most shareholders will participate in it. They can always sell afterwards and pocket easy profit.
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