Food for thought with CCP:
Annual FY operating costs are around $2.5 ~ $3M. (Lets use the lower $2.5M in this analysis)
Smart tags sold via channel partners generate $120 pa.
While smart tags sold directly are priced at $180.
The companies direction is to leverage their channel partners at I think 65/35 ratio so lets average a smart tag at $145 pa.
So to reach break even we need to sell over 17 thousand smart tags.
Our current CCV is $730k so we have around 5,000 active smart tags in active subscription.
So we need 350% growth on our current subscription amount to break even.
Below is the CCV growth from Q1 2017 to now.
Column 1 Column 2 Column 3 Column 4 Column 5 Column 6 Column 7 Column 8 Column 9 Column 10 Column 11 Column 12 Column 13 Column 14 0 Customer Contract Value (CCV) Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18 Q2 18 Q3 18 Q4 18 Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19 Q4 19 Q1 2020 1 24 Month CCV $ 275,000 $ 340,000 $ 440,000 $ 530,000 $ 630,000 $ 750,000 $ 900,000 $ 1,080,000 $ 1,296,000 $ 1,555,200 $ 1,866,240 $ 2,239,488 $ 2,687,386 2 Increase 24% 29% 20% 19% 19% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%
We are growing CCV at about 20% average each quarter.
Assuming all stays as is we are pretty far away from returning a net profit.
But realistically we know the company will sign more channel partners and expand into new geographies/countries and the technology is 'morphing' to target new markets as we have seen with these new Ph sensors and so forth.
So in my 'optimistic' model I see us break even 1H 2019.
Column 1 Column 2 Column 3 Column 4 Column 5 Column 6 Column 7 Column 8 Column 9 Column 10 0 Customer Contract Value (CCV) Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18 Q2 18 Q3 18 Q4 18 Q1 19 1 24 Month CCV $ 275,000 $ 340,000 $ 440,000 $ 530,000 $ 630,000 $ 819,000 $ 1,064,700 $ 1,597,050 $ 2,395,575 2 Increase 24% 29% 20% 19% 30% 30% 50% 50%
Pure speculation and of course have assumed Opex stays flat.
Just food for thought and I also think CCP are selling the devices too cheap, unless we make a significant footprint globally.
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