VLA 0.00% $1.75 viralytics limited

Scheme Booklet, page-5

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    Also, have a look at the 'discount method' they're using, it's well-covered in the 'independent-experts report' (IE) but they use a 14%-16% discount rate, which is actually quite high, compared to many of the ASX 'biotech/pharma' rated and/or valued by Morningstar (CMC seems to back their platform with Morningstar data, and additionally another's, more selectively), which generally sit around thee 6.5-8.5% mark...

    So the 'discount rate' appears to be nearly double what I've seen traditionally over several years...

    Delloite actually make note of this quite openly, but have a look at 'Setting 2' figures in the IE, "4.5 Key Assumptions" (p88)...

    It is thorough though, and complex, perhaps on purpose, not sure if everyone/anyone else has done a 'deep dive' yet, and has a lot of experience using a 'discount method' for 'quasi' valuations...

    $1.75 isn't a bad offer for VLA, perhaps a little opportunistic, though I suspect VLA is worth a lot more, particularly if 'Setting 2" comes to fruition, they are huge numbers, for ~A$500m, they're getting a bargin...

    ML
    Last edited by morgenlofting: 11/05/18
 
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