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08/05/18
10:30
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Originally posted by rocket973
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Power costs are one of the most important considerations for a smelter complex. GMC management never anticipated the huge increases in power costs otherwise they would never have wanted to build a smelter in Indonesia. Basically caught with their pants down and now with no other options but to forge ahead regardless of the fact that GMC will be alone in the highest category of expensive power for producers of manganese alloys. Its not a matter of IF GMC goes broke, because it will. It will just be a matter of when.
Power prices in Indonesia will go up and its only a matter of time.
Can Indonesia's PLN wean itself off the government's subsidies?
PUBLISHED: 18 APR 18
Without government support, it would be thoroughly un-investible for traditional bond investors.
According to Melissa Brown, energy finance consultant from the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, just from 2014 to 2017, the Ministry of Finance pumped US$22.9 billion of fresh cash into PLN to plug the holes in PLN’s financials created by rapidly escalating fuel and purchased power costs. It’s expected that PLN will remain a massive drain on the national treasury without a radical restructuring of the company’s business model.
The crux of the problem is that PLN’s tariff regime fails to recover generating, transmission and distribution costs, resulting in operating losses that have averaged US$2.1 billion annually over the past four years. To cover this shortfall, enable the company to service its debt, and record a cosmetic profit, the government has given PLN an average of US$4.7 billion annually during this period.
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So GMC management failed to anticipate changes in global coal and crude oil prices? I would suggest that if you could anticipate those price changes you wouldn't be wasting time building smelters.