This is not an upramp or a downramp, merely explaining my take on the shareholder register and pointing out that MEI might actually get its chance to fly as we enter exploration newsflow.
Scroll to the bottom if you don't like boring, badly presented numbers.
Here's the low down. Mostly made up of my own notes so I can track these things but if you can get your head around it then that is helpful.
On 26 May 2017 MEI announced the structure of its deal to acquire highly prospective cobalt tenements. It proposed to issue:
A - 60m shares to acquire Cobalt Canada at [price not defined] + $30,000 cash.
B1 - 63m shares as part of a 126m issue to sophisticated investors at 1.1 cents.
B2 - 63m shares as part of a 126m issue to sophisticated investors at 1.1 cents.
C - 6.35m shares at 3.16 cents and $155,000 cash for acquisition of other tenements.
D - 7.56m shares at 1.1 cents per share in lieu of cash costs of the whole transaction.
E1 - 30m options with a 1.1 cent strike price when the shareprice gets to VWAP 4 cents for 20 days;
E2 - 30m options with a 1.1 cent strike price when the shareprice gets to VWAP 8 cents for 20 days.
Also on 26 May is when Kumova Tolga came out of the woodwork at a substantial shareholder with 21.5m shares (6.78% of MEI).
On 22 August and some other date all of the shares and options above were printed and minted and ready to go.
Over the next few months some more shares were issued to pay consultants and purchase a geological database.
At start of November 2017 the shareprice hit 9.5 cents. Around this time the 1.1 cent options started to be exercised.
Fast forward to 28 November 2017 when the company announced a capital raising of $4.34m at 6.2 cents including:
a - 50m shares at 6.2 cents to sophisticated investors
b - share purchase plan for existing holders for $15,000 parcels.
The SPP was oversubscribed - big time - so it was scaled back. Kumova Tolga increased his holding to 38,800,000 shares (7.32%). We also knows that Tolga, through some means, has 1.1 cents options (they were converted on 6 December 2017) and made a 60,000 on-market purchase on 31 May 2017 (see para 3 of this SSH announcement).
Adding up all of Kumova's acquisitions (and some of the numbers in his SSH announcements don't quite add up) his average holding price at the moment is around 2.1 cents per share. This really is a red herring but I expect that Kumova Tolga is probably not that interested in a mere 65% gain by selling into 3.5 cents and the likes.
So by now you are all confused and wondering why this wall of text is here? Well, the upshot is this:
There was shares issued, and options exercised, at 1.1 cents to the tune of about 230m shares. Kumova seems to still hold his so we can say that 192m 1.1 cents shares would have to be sold since 26 May 2017 before we can say the selling is likely to subside.
Looking at the volumes that have gone through since 26 May 2017, and the last of the 30m tranche of 1.1 cent options coming to an end, I expect the exploration newsflow that will come from MEI will actually have the capacity to push the shareprice much higher.
6.2 cents short term target (capital raising and SPP price).
MEI Price at posting:
3.6¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
