$50-60 New Normal or U.S Shale Bubble?, page-781

Croas,

you basically have it right .......

now - ask the obvious questions:

1. "how much" will STO have to spend to either find or acquire additional gas resources....
2. how much will it then cost to develop same
3. assuming cooperative govt's and community group's, what is est cost for Narrabri (hint - see old ESG target statement)

sum those - and you will have a good reference point for STO's future capex requirements .......

as you hint at - all management have done is postpone expl spend to remain mostly within debt covenants over the past 3-yrs or so .........

looking forward - I hope they are smart enough to get into the resources that will (likely imho) underpin an expansion on PNG-LNG .......the ST weakness may be related to damange and how does one get insrance for earthquakes in an earthquake zone .......

anyhoo - that is essentially why I argued that ORG was a better "bet" than sunny STO ......

STO will do "ok" in my opinion - but, as you have "hinted at" - it needs higher oil prices to spend the $$$$ to rebuild the assets.....to then drive the earnings !

hope you found that preso of interest!

rgds
V_H