Hi Ash. what is bizarre is that you interpreted a statement of fact (hazelwood has closed and gas prices have increased) has me mourning the closure. It should have been closed 20 years ago, for a variety of reasons! I believe I have taken advantage of the closure investing in PEA. What I bemoan is that in next 5 year Liddell in NSW and Yallourn are also likely to close taking another 3000 MW out and there is no plan for the future. Every time we change governments (or leaders) we go back to square 1. Renewable or whatever, replacing this amount of generation will take decades of planning and implementation, meanwhile Rome burns.
This lack of planning is why peakers are becoming not only necessary for minor load excursions but are also commanding top dollar. It only takes an unexpected shutdown of a major generator and up the price will go, and it could occur anytime.
By the way, I am in favor of nucs, why should the most geological stable continent on earth make use of its natural resources, when the risks are small. Dont want to go on about waste storage, the fuel can be recycled, its just the economics are not favorable after Fukashima. ( See SLX technology)
On the finance front I dont care if my investments are profitable only operating for 1 day a year or 365 days a year, and I think (know) that Nova has already achieved what could be could be considered a very reasonable ROI. If i was using the extrapolated data for this decision I would have mortgaged the house by now.
Why are batteries a con, as opposed to a pro?
The SA government battery supposedly cost 50 million for a 100 MW.hr battery. What we are not told is that the Tesla batteries cannot be discharged below half capacity or destruction is likely (Read the Powerwalls warranty) so it is actually 50 million for a 50 MW.hr battery
Nova runs for an hour (10 MW.hr) the equivalent battery, regardless or where it is put it, or what it is used to offset, would cost 10 million. Would you be happy to invest in this? Charging the battery is not as cheap as you say,. Even if gas costs a very high $10 per gigajoule, the cost to produce 1 MW.hr of electrical energy at Nova is around $90. The wholesale price of electrical is not often below $80 per MW.hr (the revenue opportunity which would be lost if used to charge the batteries) so there is little difference. Take away the energy lost in operating a battery and about even.
Nova produces usable energy so is value adding, batteries absorb usable energy and with the charger/storage/inverter chain are around 90% efficient at doing this so are a net greenhouse contributor and will continue to be so until we have increased our renewable capacity about 1000 fold from were it is now. It is far better to use renewable energy at time of generation causing gas emitters to reduce generation with our current (and at least 20 years from now)energy mix.
The biggest con (as in we are being misled) is Elon Musk convincing the masses that Li ion is the best battery for everything. Lithium (in all its derivatives ) is great for transportable type options because of weight. Other batteries are often better choices for the application. I know hotcopper doesn't like cross pollination of threads but look at Redflow (RFX) a far better battery for power supply back up for critical infrastructure (IMO, and its Australian owned even though like everything else manufactured overseas) that can be fully discharged without damage but is not as suitable as the Li Ion for grid stability (like the SA one). Still not cost effective as a peaker either, but definitely better than diesel or similar back up.
One last comment about the powerwall, for the average user it would save around $3 per day, with say a 5kW solar array. The battery itself costs around $12k. Yearly savings around $1k. Battery life in a household situation 5 year and then will require total replacement. As above, actually will contribute to greenhouse gases, very poor financial investment, so why would you install one????
I actually do have a reason and it is that I have no faith that in the next few years I wont be able to flick a switch and expect the lights to go on!
As for the dirty power station arguments and coal there are other forums for this.
In current financial environment, reasonable dividend from PEA as well better than a bank, and I think it will improve.
PEA Price at posting:
53.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)
