One of LPEs problems is exactly how to value it.
Conservatively go by cash flow quarterlies, 6 monthly and annual accounts. The problem being they are all looking backwards in time, to when the company was smaller.
My view point is, its the size of the business this month and its future growth that really matters. I only look in the rear view mirror for seconds in the minute when driving, what's in front deserves most of the attention. To see this look at the company guided revenue forecasts as the most credible
Take the month of February, guidance is $2.5m of billing (note not cash receipts which are delayed by the collection cycle) So at that point if no more growth occurs annual revenue will be 30 million (12 x 2.5)
Going by the conversion rate to date 6 GWh/month is conservative, so these are minimums.
Now move forward 5 months to July revenue is 37.2 m (3.1 x 12)
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With the current backwards looking latest 4c LPE is cash flow positive by 23k, despite the one off non recurring additional cost of 200k. Making the benchmark for the next 4c 223k cash flow positive before allowing for the expected growth in receipts over the next 3 months.
These receipts will be larger for two reasons
Growth at 6 GWh/month to be added
The March quarter typically has cash receipts for the high electricity volume months of Dec, Jan, Feb.
(for the one standard GWh cost of 220k/annum each quarter has a different % consumed.
By my maths and allowing one months slippage for cash reciepts
June Quarter 23.8% ( revenue generated in March, April and May)
Sept Quarter 21.8%
Dec Quarter 22.3%
Mar Quarter 32%
The March Quarter will actually sell 43.5% more electricity than the latest December quarter, what will that do for the quantum of cash flow positive.
I can see it easily taking LPE past the amount spent on conversions last quarter (576k), placing LPE in the very strong position of cash flow positive financing conversions.
The loan facilities under negotiation will then allow faster growth in GWhrs under billing
I do note that the average cost per GWhr converted has dropped considerably in the Dec quarter with 18 gwh achieved for 576k implying 11 were conversions at 50k (if state one are to be believed) and the remainder take overs at little capital cost.
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I would want my position set prior to the March quarters release.
(20min delay)
