I felt compelled to buy some of these (and sell other stocks to do so) on the basis of the recent improvement in business metrics and the corresponding revenue growth. Although still a pretty small position for me, quite sizable in the context of a loss-making company (which is not my typical investment style!!).
The core thesis is that this is a business that has deep understanding of its consumer segment that has been struggling to find product market fit for the last 7 years and has survived major technological change and has now (in flexiroam X) found a product that serves its niche perfectly.
Numerous data points suggest that the uptick in revenue is a real reflection of the business trajectory and not a false start in this instance:
- company announcements showing improved retention, improved ARPU, improved activation
- Alexa website ranking
- Google trends data
- App annie data
Given the in-place distribution and the free kick from returning user base and increasing ARPU, this has an opportunity for both rapid scaling and enormous operating leverage.
Add to that recent director buys, low overall KMP remuneration and shareholder alignment (Jeff Ong has a c50% indirect exposure) and the necessary preconditions for success are there.
Key risks/unknowns:
- impossible to know gross margins with the available data....can only guess that this is a profitable underlying business (which makes sense to be honest)
- fast moving industry dynamics
- loss making
I estimate a maximum 50% downside risk (there is substantial IP that must have some underlying value), and an upside reward in case of market execution of at least 3-4x. My gut feeling is that there is an 80% chance this thesis will be correct. Unfortunately in this underlying market it has been necessary to be decisive and take a calculated risk with positioning here. 1-2 years ago the I feel that I could have sat on this for at least another 6 months, reducing the uncertainty further! Of well...hopefully I won't be proven wrong as the lack of liquidity and the bid/ask spread are a double-edged sword (good when rising, but horrible when falling)!
Some data below...got a bit lazy with the investing/financing cashflows but I think they are immaterial.
|
Column 1 |
Column 2 |
Column 3 |
Column 4 |
Column 5 |
Column 6 |
Column 7 |
Column 8 |
Column 9 |
Column 10 |
Column 11 |
Column 12 |
| 1 |
|
30/06/2015 |
30/09/2015 |
31/12/2015 |
31/03/2016 |
30/06/2016 |
30/09/2016 |
31/12/2016 |
31/03/2017 |
30/06/2017 |
30/09/2017 |
31/12/2017 |
| 2 |
Operating |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 3 |
Receipts |
156 |
1241 |
2681 |
91 |
862 |
919 |
263 |
399 |
483 |
736 |
1252 |
| 4 |
Growth |
#VALUE! |
695.5% |
116.0% |
-96.6% |
847.3% |
6.6% |
-71.4% |
51.7% |
21.1% |
52.4% |
70.1% |
| 5 |
R&D |
|
|
-36 |
-71 |
-279 |
-175 |
-91 |
-97 |
-88 |
-78 |
-100 |
| 6 |
R&D % |
0.0% |
0.0% |
1.3% |
78.0% |
32.4% |
19.0% |
34.6% |
24.3% |
18.2% |
10.6% |
8.0% |
| 7 |
product |
|
|
|
|
-297 |
-194 |
-310 |
-655 |
-384 |
-257 |
-517 |
| 8 |
product % |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
34.5% |
21.1% |
117.9% |
164.2% |
79.5% |
34.9% |
41.3% |
| 9 |
S&M |
-93 |
-147 |
-216 |
-204 |
-987 |
-878 |
-171 |
-189 |
-15 |
-483 |
-623 |
| 10 |
S&M % |
59.6% |
11.8% |
8.1% |
224.2% |
114.5% |
95.5% |
65.0% |
47.4% |
3.1% |
65.6% |
49.8% |
| 11 |
staff |
-101 |
-165 |
-283 |
-231 |
-213 |
-266 |
-202 |
-221 |
-221 |
-213 |
-223 |
| 12 |
staff % |
64.7% |
13.3% |
10.6% |
253.8% |
24.7% |
28.9% |
76.8% |
55.4% |
45.8% |
28.9% |
17.8% |
| 13 |
G&A |
-400 |
-1573 |
-2779 |
-37 |
|
-172 |
-144 |
-121 |
-135 |
-269 |
-187 |
| 14 |
G&A % |
256.4% |
126.8% |
103.7% |
40.7% |
0.0% |
18.7% |
54.8% |
30.3% |
28.0% |
36.5% |
14.9% |
| 15 |
interest |
8 |
34 |
50 |
50 |
36 |
22 |
20 |
14 |
11 |
9 |
7 |
| 16 |
costs of finance |
-2 |
-2 |
-2 |
-3 |
-4 |
-7 |
-12 |
-15 |
-21 |
-36 |
-83 |
| 17 |
net op cash |
-432 |
-612 |
-585 |
-405 |
-882 |
-751 |
-647 |
-885 |
-370 |
-591 |
-474 |
| 18 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 19 |
Investing |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 20 |
PP&E |
|
-29 |
|
|
-7 |
|
-105 |
-129 |
-183 |
-46 |
-2 |
| 21 |
net inv cashflow |
|
|
|
|
|
|
-105 |
-129 |
-183 |
-46 |
-3 |
| 22 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 23 |
Financing |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 24 |
Loan repay |
|
|
|
|
|
|
-3 |
-3 |
-3 |
-3 |
-3 |
| 25 |
net fin cashflow |
|
|
|
|
|
|
-3 |
-3 |
-3 |
-3 |
-3 |
| 26 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 27 |
NETT |
|
|
|
|
|
|
-755 |
-1017 |
-556 |
-640 |
-480 |
(20min delay)
