Well I for one cant decide whether the quarterly was a crushing let-down or a reassuring glimpse of the future.
Pro’s ? and con’s ?
The Ashford coking coal project has settled at a time when there has been a rout in prices. The resource stands at approx 15million tonnes, our purchase of 50% of that for $375,000 represents about aus$20 per tonne. The bench mark price set by Japanese importers looks to becoming irrelevant with Indian and Chinese importers more likely to be settling the price in the future. Despite the resource being (from what I can see) stranded at the moment, I think this is a smart move. I know nothing about the terrain, transport routes, likelihood of the transport corridor becoming reality or the future direction of prices. What I do agree with is us paying $350,000 to take control of Ashford rather than us receiving $350,000 and relinquishing control of a resource that is at a low price.
New Zealand drilling has been completed with more planned. All approvals are now in place for this drilling and it is expected to start in the coming months.
What to say about this ? Well at 31st of December $291,000 of the debt facility had been drawn with cash of $67,000, and with the capital raise and settling Ashford effectively cancel out each other, we are looking at having borrowed about aus$500,000 of the $2,000,000 loan facility by March 31st. I think we would want to make pretty damn sure we are getting results from this expenditure on NZ, I’m sure we can all agree if we get a good bump in share price from doing this it will be well worth it, then at least any further capital raisings can be done over and above what early shareholders have bought in at.
Now we come to Agate Creek. Where to begin ? The glaring omission of Etheridge ? Other third party offers to process the ore ? Talk of constraints imposed by the wet season ? Completed sometime in FY2018 ? How about the progress with traditional owners ? It’s enough to give anyone who approaches things in a structured way an aneurism ! So I have gleaned from posters on HC that it’s a condition of the ML that there must be a processing solution for the ML to be granted. So Etheridge is the problem, not the traditional owners, no talk of recommissioning the facility in the quarterly now though.. Considering the entire economic viability of Agate Creek hinges upon this, and therefore the entire Companies viability it’s a more than a tad bit disappointing that we aren’t informed what is planned.
For me, an optimist, I like to believe that they mean the wet season at present that may constrain mining, NOT the one in December. I like to believe that burning cash on non-core projects like Ashford and NZ is the act of a pro and not a con. Surely the Mining Lease must be weeks away because otherwise burning cash at this stage would be the act of a madman. To me it appears to be the actions of someone who has tied up all the loose ends and is already spending the spoils. Its a dam shame that there is nothing in the quarterly that confirms this, or that LNY has consistently over promised and under delivered. Being convinced that one of these days agate creek’s mining lease will be granted is a certainty to cling to, it doesn’t mean it’s a correct one though.
I still think good news is around the corner. I think the assay results will show some high grade intercepts and then grant of the mining lease will follows shortly after. It just a shame nothing in the quarterly shows the least bit progress in getting the mining lease.
LNY Price at posting:
0.4¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
