Consolidation time.
Will be floating around 6.5c-7c ish with low volume for a little while until closer to drilling commencement. After all, 140mil shares was just released onto the market only a few weeks ago from the entitlement offer. A good proportion went to retail holders so we will need to give the market time to digest the inevitable supply. Holding at just under 7c is actually remarkably strong considering the new shares were issued at 2.5c.
MC comparison (12th Jan '18)
RLC:
398mil SOI @ 6.5c close = 25mil mc
ASN:
366.3mil SOI + 103.3 2.5c options =>469.7mil SOI* @ 28c close = 131.5mil mc
LKE:
233.6mil SOI + 19.2mil 10c options => 252.8mil SOI* @ 27.5c close = 69.5mil mc
PNN:
510mil SOI^ @ 7.9c close = 40.3mil mc
At PNN's MC^, we'd be over 10c.
At LKE's MC*, we'd be over 17c.
At ASN's MC*, we'd be over 32c.
Not going to include CAD in comparison because they a) aren't trading b) not focused on lithium brine anymore.
* fully diluted assuming conversion of options excl. unlisted options.
^ incl. recent 26mil share placement.
Avg fully diluted market cap excl. RLC = 80.4mil (we'd be at over 20c with a 80.4mil mc lol)
Judging by the last Ann, we are ~1-4 weeks away from drilling start. (my estimate)
This will put us:
- 2-4 weeks behind ASN
- 6-8 weeks behind LKE
- 4-6 weeks behind PNN
ASN is valued by far the most generously by the market. I expect that RLC will soon close the gap with the other briners (that are drilling) since we are still by farrrrrrrrrr the cheapest.
I am also of the opinion that our assets will rank favourably compared to the others so eventful times ahead for reedy.
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