Future projections, page-4

Thought I had better make comment here:-

The path to market looks like the diagram below  with a round 1oo TJ/day on the Amadeus pipeline (Which is a low pressure pipeline & can't be compressed), The NGP with 9o TJ/day, 30 of which are taken by PWC leaving CTP with this pie graph on the  NGP1. which leaves CTP with only 20.3 TJ/Day of revenue gas.(Leaving out a TJ conversion for Oil and Condensate for simplicity.)


Put simply there is a round 100 TJ/day speed limit on our path to market with a 60 CTP/MAC choke point on  NGP1 and I am still not convinced that the Mereenie Gas processing will be  good for 50 TJ/day for first NGP1 gas late 2018.


The NGP1 midline compression station  is not in the build for first gas late 2018 and IMO will probably not be commissioned until late 2022 at the earliest when the NGP2, now going through FEED will be open for business.

Allowing for supply of presold gas to MAC that leaves CTP with only 20.3 TJ/day of revenue gas not counting the NT sales which will pay the rent but (See last quarterly report) aren't paying much of CTP's principal off.

Now this assumes that the horizontal drilling & Mereenie surface facilities can output 50 TJ/day & Palm valley can come up with an extra 10 TJ/day to fill NGP1 which I doubt.

On 365 days/year that gives CTP   (20.3 x  3650/1000 =  7.4 PJ/Year of NGP1 Revenue gas as the best case scenario.

After amortised costs, (Look at around P227 of the SOA) plus NT royalties Etc. need to added in the picture.

Probably worth reading the long post I did recently as background, I put a lot of work into it to try & help readers.

Pretty disappointed with the whole show after the AGM.

Just my opinion and not investment advice.

All the best.

Regards   OGP