Yes Ya, well aware of the commercial aspects and have already included the assumption of new C-H lng term GSA in the model - post https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/28761014/single
It doesn't help to get ahead of oneself though and I wonder abount AWE's commitment to the JV ... perhaps they sell out.
Wrt to the flow rates, what I'm really trying to get a view on is "capacity constraints". COE will have the 2 wells ready to start delivering sales gas about mid CY19. Clearly the plan was/is for APA to process all that gas. Do the Sole wells fill the plant's capacity? The reported capacity of Orbost is 68 TJ/day (25PJ pa). If both wells flow at 25 Mmcfpd that approx 50TJ/day and around 75% capacity. But COE has long term contracts for 20PJ/day for Sole .... implies 55TJ'day required to meet that.
So how does COE make "room" for Longtom? Better yet how does COE intend to get Manta Gas processed if Orbost capacity is 25PJ pa because in FY22 the Manta project doubles the gas output of COE!
I agree on JV (which removes most of capital constraint) up to a point for Manta but what I don't see is the processing capacity for the additional gas so I don't seen any need for COE to accelerate Manta.
COE Price at posting:
31.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)
