FIG 0.00% 2.0¢ freedom insurance group ltd

Ann: Business Update, page-40

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  1. 4,382 Posts.
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    it's completely your decision whether to sell and it should be based on your personal investment/trading strategy

    in my case, I am a trader and divide my trades up into different timeframes depending on the circumstances, but it is rarely more than 3 months and sometimes and very often not longer than a single day session, and my trades are based more on my experience of how market players react and technical analysis than a belief that my personal fundamental valuation of a particular stock is the only right one and always right...e.g. I have often successfully traded stocks that are at complete odds with what I believe the market cap should be at that point...in my experience the market just does not work that way over shorter time frames and overshoots and undershoots all the time...but longer term a fair valuation will be applied at some point

    you will see on the BPT thread I recent called it off 80c even though the cap raise was at 75c and that was what the pros said it was fundamentally worth mainly because of the debt that needed to be paid off...I called the forward pricing to go over early $1 next year and I said I had a short term target of 97c which is where I then sold out...nothing has changed with the FA analysis as no debt has been paid off but it was clear to me from various factors that they (meaning the instos) would run it up and also the market would bring an 'as if debt free' position forward rather than wait for it to occur. Also, some 'buys' were going through that were huge...from memory one was at $5.6m at 88c...now why would you do that if you know the cap raise was at 75c,...so that kept me in it, confirmed by case, etc...

    just saying that there is a lot more that determine the short term movements than purely someone's view of what fair value of the stock might be based on FA...but I think based on your own analysis you in any event think it should be higher than what it is currently...
 
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