Ann: Implementing Strategy - Market Update, page-15

Shares purchased several days prior to a market sensitive announcement being released which infers:
* pick up of a new customer
* further activities underway including a new distribution arrangement into greater Melbourne
* other apparent confidential activities underway
* (and, by the way, buried deep down in the announcement) - loss of the Aussie Farmers Direct contract.

Anyone else would be querying insider trading here + breach of the (updated) Trading Policy released <2 weeks ago. But here, it's just another day in paradise where fuzzy words are not backed up by any detail.

In essence, today's announcement should actually be characterised as a revenue /profit downgrade (or loss upgrade). The following comment from today's "market sensitive" announcement makes it even more so:
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"Camperdown Dairy has made significant advances from its position in April 2016 when acquired by AHF. At that time the turnover of Camperdown Dairy was dominated by two customers, its founder and former parent Aussie Farmers and the Farmers Own milk brand owned by Woolworths. The sales and take-up of Camperdown Dairy branded milks, cream and yoghurts products has been very encouraging since that time with solid marketing efforts. Management expects that with the distribution and marketing activities being undertaken in Victoria sales of Own Brands will continue to show strong growth from its current low base."

From this, we know that the bulk of CDC sales in F17 were due to Aussie Farmers and WOW. We also know that sales have off their highs. Further, we know that Own Brand sales represents a "low base" (code for, immaterial).

In 1H17, "dairy product sales" were $9.061M.

In F17, they were $16.137M.

By deduction, in 2H17, "dairy product sales" were $7.076M (at variance of -22% to the first half.

Through to end Oct16, "dairy product sales" were $6.171M, suggesting therefore that the Nov16 and Dec16 sales' contributions were $2.890M.

Measured in monthly averages, the following is apparent:
* Jul16 - Oct16 = $1.543M average.
* Nov16 - Dec16 = $1.445M average.
* 1H17 average = $1.510M average.
* 2H17 average = $1.179M average.
* F17 average = $1.344M average.
* Nov16 - Jun17 average = $1.245M average ($9.966M).

CDC was already well and truly in decline mode before today's announcement, so how much further has the decline descended to as a result of today's announcement? In other words, loss of Aussie Farmers today (recently) following on from what appears to have previously been a serious winding back of the WOW exposure (based on past /recent strategic strategy, etc).

So, really, today's announcement was all about a material revenue and /or profit downgrade without any of the attendant details being provided, all preceded however by the Chair buying shares just several days ago. Interesting.