I'm not sure a PhD in anything is necessary before you're allowed to make logical inferences from available information. Nor involvement in completed double blind trials.
As to the facts, the italics below indicate the facts as we know them
1) we have observed major positive changes in the children in the active arm [ann: 27-Sep-2017]
2) no statistical changes in the control group of children [ann: 27-Sep-2017]
3) The study is ongoing but half of the children in our study have completed it [ann: 27-Sep-2017]
It's pretty clear that anybody who is aware of these facts, and who is participating in the trial but not yet completed will become immediately aware of which arm they are on. So the possible effect on the trial will be ruled by how well-informed the participants are.
The clinicians are probably being responsible and not looking into things.
But I suspect that the parents are trawling the Internet quite regularly looking for developments that could help them and offer them hope. They could be more aware of this news than you give them credit for. I also suspect that far from being willing to "try anything to the end of any trial" as you posted, parents will be looking for credible trials and treatments. This is a field where there is an awful amount of sheer quackery, and they will be trying to protect their children from useless or harmful treatments just as much as searching for the good work.
"What are you trying to do" - I'm a holder with a "hold" sentiment, so of course I want the share price to go up. I'm also a parent and have some personal experience of children on the autism spectrum, so of course I want the FDA submission to be approved and for the treatment to be made available as widely as possible. I believe my posts cannot possibly influence either the share price or the outcome of the FDA submission when it comes.
But I also hold another stock which recently and (almost) totally unexpectedly failed a trial and the share price crashed by 85%. After this the forum was filled with shocking tales of mum and dad investors who had made astounding decisions! Some had borrowed money against houses or from relatives to buy that stock. Others had taken leveraged positions on margin loans. More had invested substantial proportions of their wealth, which is now gone. Some had advised friends who had then bought the stock. It was a financial and emotional catastrophe for many; impacting marriages, children, retirement prospects, and friendships. I believe my posts may make some readers think extra carefully before going all-in on odds that are worse than the roll of a die.
Small-cap, med-tech, start-up companies fail. It's what they do. It's what you should expect.
NTI Price at posting:
21.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
