Had a tough run this share but are we through the worst and about to hit better times? Well I thought I'd have a wee look so I prepared a forecast to get some idea of what the future holds. I used HRR's BFS dated 29/6/16 and updated it for product prices, exchange rate & financing struture. Here it is:
Column 1
Column 2
Column 3
Column 4
0
Units
2019
2020
1
Assumptions:
2
Mine Life
Years
10
3
Commercial Production Declared
Date
1/1/2019
4
Production - Zn
mmlbs
44
88
5
Market Price - ZN
US$/lb
1.50
1.50
6
Production - Cu
mmlbs
11
22
7
Market Price - Cu
US$/lb
3.00
3.00
8
Production - Pb
mmlbs
13
26
9
Market Price - Pb
US$/lb
1.15
1.15
10
AUDUSD
0.78
0.78
11
C1 Cash Cost before BPC
A$/lb Zn
1.50
1.50
12
Royalties
%
4.0
4.0
13
CTR
%
30
30
14
Revenue Tax Losses
A$m
97
15
Development Capital
A$m
156
16
Sustaining Capital
A$m
-10
-26
17
Results:
18
Revenue
A$m
146
292
19
EBITDA
A$m
70
144
20
PAT
A$m
52
97
21
FCF (Free cash flow)
A$m
53
95
22
Valuation:
23
EBITDA MULTIPLIER = 6 Times
A$ per FDS
0.19
0.41
24
PAT MULTIPLIER - 11 Times
A$ per FDS
0.25
0.49
25
FCFMULTIPLIER - 10 Times
A$ per FDS
0.18
0.49
26
AVERAGE
A$ per FDS
0.20
0.47
Hence based on the above my SP forecasts for HRR are:
1. 2019: HRR's SP = A$0.20
2. 2020: HRR's SP - A$0.47
The current HRR SP = A$0.074 so it looks like there is potential for a re-rating at some point in the future.
Please remember this is all my stuff and before you invest you need to DYOR.
HRR Price at posting:
7.4¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held