I think you should consider @Southoz to have much more weight than me. Every one of the points in that post make exceptional sense; particularly the leading point about how this will affect the behaviour and expectations of the participants.
That's a thing I hadn't considered.
Those who believe they are on a particular arm are going to be sensitised to the expected outcomes and will discount those they consider to be "wrong". If the participants are guessing correctly then this will exaggerate the difference in outcomes between active and placebo arms, reducing the significance of the final result.
You know... I had been considering increasing my exposure if the current down-trend continued much further, on the back of the preliminary results. Now I'm more inclined to stay with my original strategy and just hold. I have a good entry price so I have no need to increase my risk.
"I’m pretty sure they have all bases covered" - They will have covered only the bases that were discussed. If nobody asked "what do you think about releasing preliminary results before the trial is complete" then the FDA representative wouldn't have had the chance to say "that would be a dumb idea because..."
The great thing about HotCopper is that if your ideas have weaknesses then people will pick them to pieces. Thank you @Southoz
NTI Price at posting:
21.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
