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26/09/17
17:34
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Originally posted by Wing it
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My theory is that SWM and PRT are working on a 'Stock for Stock' merger and that is one of the reason for the two recent announcements by both companies ie. to put a brake on the increasing share price of PRT while SWM share price remains stagnant.
It will be hard for SWM to sell the merger to its shareholders if the PRT share price gets too far ahead of the SWM share price and vice versa.
Unfortunately for both companies their hands are somewhat tied until the Reform Bill becomes law which won't happen for at least another three weeks. Once the changes have become law I would then expect developments to happen quite quickly.
In regard to the recent announcements I find it a bit hard to believe that PRT just happened to 'lob a bid' for SWM that was then very quickly dismissed. The media reforms have been on the table for years and you can't tell me that numerous discussions haven't already taken place behind closed doors and that each company knows exactly where the other one stands in regards to any takeover or merger.
I had earlier this year done some calculations for what I would consider a fair stock for stock merger between the two but at the moment I can't find them!!! I'll redo the calculations in the next couple of days and make another post but for memory I think it was something like 10 PRT shares for 8 SWM shares.
Again this is my own theory and I'd hate for anyone to make an investment decision based on what could be completely wrong. I'd be happy to hear others posters comments and theories though, (even a good conspiracy theory never goes amiss!).
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The 8 for 10 ratio was probably calculated at a much higher SWM share price I guesss?
My theory is that if Kerry Stokes wants out of media entirely then he needs Prime to bulk up the 7 Network with revenue and economies of scale and synergies. If Stokes was able to achieve this then he will be in a better position to extract a much higher bid for SWM.
Time will tell.